Morning Comrades.
I have been formulating this topic in my head for a few days now and whilst whatever perceptions and ideas to solve them aren’t fully formulated yet, or rather they don’t feel that way, I wanted to share this train of thought with you. Bear with me if the trajectory of this essay may be a little jumpy at times, but here it goes.
Even though I believe I am speaking to converted here and this subject occasionally feels a little redundant to me at times, similar to Monday’s case against the police, I gathered it is better to say what may seem obvious to me. To be absolutely clear, my intention here isn’t to scare anyone or unnecessarily cause panic for attention, far from it, however, I do think it overdue that we face some pretty dark facts, sharpen our words and thus understanding of certain realities and with them, once and for all get together to not only prepare for inevitable but figure out how to win. My main motivation has and always been to ensure your well-being and safety, for as much as that is possible.
We are not in the middle of yet another crisis with the usual trajectory of “things” getting better for fewer and fewer of us afterwards. We are also not stuck between a rock and a hard place, stuck between waring political ideologies but at the sharp end of a looming civil/class war.
Puh. I know, sounds a little extreme, but at some point we just have to call it what it is and linguistics matter. A civil war is a violent conflict between a state and one or more organized non-state actors in the state’s territory. Civil wars are thus distinguished from interstate conflicts (in which states fight other states), violent conflicts or riots not involving states (sometimes labeled intercommunal conflicts), and state repression against individuals who cannot be considered an organized or cohesive group, including genocides, and similar violence by non-state actors, such as terrorism or violent crime.
A short disclaimer: whilst it could appear that I am basing these ideas on my interpretation of the declining US Empire, this has more to do with a general interpretation of what I am witnessing around the world. I am keeping this as general as possible to make it as relevant for the around 30 different nationalities reading this newsletter and also because I only know so much about a very few places, and the US isn’t one of them.
It is fair to say that some ten years ago most people reading this would put the tensions within their societies down to opposing ideological politics, “if only there could be some sort of consensus, we could solve our problems” - that being one of the greatest gaslighting campaigns of those defenders of democracies across that west who have little, if any interest in actually existing, let alone serving in a democracy. It doesn’t matter where you are from, but the last ten years will have made it absolutely clear that no matter who is in “power” that they serve all the same masters and they are actively working against us.
When your labour, on average around the Global North, is taxed at around 40% to finance the security of your society, infrastructure, health via the means of a representative democracy, and every single representative is doing the exact opposite you have to call it what it is. Make no mistake, the “system” isn’t broken, it is not a question of “reform” or “getting the money out of politics” ( nice start though ), no, this system works as intended by those who made it - and all Disneyfication of democratic struggles aside - there were only a few instances in the last 300 years where “the people” really had a say. Sure, guillotining a few royals in France sure put their back up but it only took 15 years until the capitalists put Napoleon in the saddle as Emperor to serve their needs for growth.
The fact remains that we have a caste of global citizens, each directing the people we pay and give power to, to not only ignore us, but tweak the “system” so far, that at this stage, you have no other choice but to call it a diametrical war, directed at you and me.
Simply put, we all could have free housing, free healthcare, entirely equal societies, peace and so much more IF we weren’t fought at every level by not only the capitalists but specifically our governments.
But coming back to these harsh words: Civil War. We are living in an age of civil war. Civil wars were almost nonexistent until the twentieth century. Except in a handful of cases—the American and English civil wars, the French Revolution—it was rare for citizens to mobilize soldiers to fight for control over their government. This didn’t mean that violence didn’t break out. Average citizens engaged in all sorts of brutality against one another; they assaulted strangers, neighbors, spouses, children, and members of their community. They just didn’t tend to fight over political control.
This changed after World War II. Since 1946, more than 250 civil wars have broken out around the world, and, after a dip in the 1990s, their numbers continue to increase. There are now almost 50 percent more civil wars than there were in 2001. Today, civil wars are being fought in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Mali, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, and elsewhere. In India and Malaysia, smaller intrastate conflicts have the potential to develop into something much worse. Even countries we thought could never experience another civil war—such as the United States and the United Kingdom—are showing signs of unrest. We are, it turns out, living in the age of civil war.
This rise in civil wars comes at a time when all other types of interpersonal violence are declining. All other types. Human beings are less likely to commit murder, rape, or sexual assault than at any time in modern history. (While some attention was given to rising U.S. homicide rates in 2020 and 2021, the decline over the past 30 years remains stark.) And they are less likely to kill people in other countries outside their own; international wars have declined over time. The only type of violence that has not declined is civil war. Human beings may be less willing to kill each other over lots of different things. But they are more willing to kill each other over politics.
The civil wars that have been emerging in the twenty-first century are different from those in the past. These new civil wars tend to be smaller, more decentralized, and predominantly ethnic or religious in character. Militias are becoming a bigger part of these wars, but so are paramilitary forces, terrorist organizations, and gangs and cartels. They also don’t start the way most people think they do. They rarely start as big, explosive fights between an organized rebel group and government soldiers wearing formal uniforms. Instead, they start with pockets of anger in outlying places that build slowly over time. Leaders of these movements—people who are almost always more extreme than the average citizen—require years to organize, which they do in secret meetings, hidden from view. It took three years for Mexico’s Zapatista movement to grow to just 12 members, and more than six years for a group of 30 Tamil teenagers to form the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka. Al Qaeda leaders sheltered with tribes in the desert of Mali for years before they joined the rebellion there. Here in the United States, it took a small group of wealthy plantation owners and merchants in Charleston, South Carolina, decades of fearmongering and propaganda campaigns to convince the white working class to support secession.
Most people don’t even know that a violent movement is growing. This is especially true if it is happening in a big country with lots of people and good places to hide. By the time people hear about rebels or insurgents or terrorists or guerrillas—whatever they happen to be called—it is often too late. Extremists intent on violent insurrection are already mobilized, trained, and ready to fight. Ask almost anyone who has lived through a civil war, and they will tell you that they didn’t see it coming. They are surprised when their country descends into civil war.
Historically, it was generally assumed ( and correctly so ) that 3 separate, yet inter-depending events / movements had to take place before any civil war started. First, most civil wars follow some prior conflict (often a previous civil war or, more accurately, the highly skewed and politicized memory of a past civil war). The new belligerents nor the issues need not be exactly the same as the old. Most often, a charismatic leader spouts a narrative about past glory or humiliation that suits their ideology, political ambitions, or even flows from simple historical ignorance.
Second, national identity is divided along some critical axis, such as race, faith, or class.
Thirdly, a shift from tribalism to sectarianism. With tribalism, people begin to seriously doubt whether other groups in their country have the larger community’s best interests at heart. In sectarian environments though, economic, social, and political elites and those they represent come to believe that anyone who disagrees with them is evil and actively working to destroy the community.
This being the most important part and whilst, again historically speaking, this has been the spark across the global south that usually set off any civil war, this hasn’t happened in the Global North, aside from Yugoslavia to a certain degree, in living memory of anyone. Granted, this is simply put, our capitalists imperialism coming home after exploiting the rest of the world for the past 600 years, yet the shape and clarity, and most importantly the speed in which this has become visually material is more than noteworthy.
Does anyone still believe their governments still are trustworthy, let alone do the best that they can for the people that put them in power? I certainly don’t think so and I’d bet the last 20€ I still have in my bank account that no one else has this. So far, our opposing faction has been semi-effective in deflecting the cracks of their facade by playing the same game of blaming ideological differences in whatever halls of power they’re sitting in, but the gig is up and so is their game. With that, it becomes extremely important to not only prepare for the inevitable fascism imposed by them ( more on that tomorrow ), but also by acknowledging this reality, not just for yourself but everyone you know. Speak of it in those terms. Make it clear that the mythical class war has not only been in full swing for more than 50 years, but the shape and form of what is to come will have very little do with muppets in parliament arguing, but everything to do with highly militarized police forces escorting you to work & consume. On a good day.
It is what it is and we need to call it what is. There is no point sticking your head in the sand, the inevitable civil war between us and the capitalists is here and we need act as such. They' have a 40 year head start on us but so be it. I always enjoyed good fighting odds.
Thanks for your time, attention and support. I’ll be back here with a patreon-only essay tomorrow and then Friday for everyone else. Until then, I remain yours, without compromise,
V.